“New passenger vehicles improved month on month. Despite this, the growth still remained under pressure as evidenced by a 6.6% year on year decline.”
First six months commentary
“Passenger vehicles for the first six months of the year continued to show pressure and registered a decrease of 3% compared to the same period last year. New car sales are expected to continue being under pressure for the remainder of the year. For consumers who are looking at buying, this presents good opportunities for good deals in both new and pre-owned markets”.
General Comments on June 2015 NAAMSA sales:
- The month of June 2015 showed an improvement in sales of 5.0% compared to May 2015.
- Month on month passenger vehicles increased by 4.1%, June 2015 compared to May 2015.
- Year on Year monthly comparison shows a decline in sales of 4.8% in June 2015 compared to June 2014.
- Passenger vehicles declined by 6.6% in June 2015 compared to the same month last year.
- Year on year monthly comparison shows an improvement in exports of 33.8% in June 2015 compared to June 2014.
- First half of the year compared to the same period last year, exports increased by 45.2% year on year.
General Comments on June 2015 Standard Bank VAF Personal New Business:
- There is a slight shift in vehicles financed through Standard Bank. Compared to the same period year on year, there is an increase in used vehicles financed than new ones.
- The average contract term increased from 65.5 months in June 2014 to 68.8 months in June 2015 (5.1% year on year growth).
- The average deal size decreased from R296 267 in June 2014 to R289 140 in June 2015, 2.4% year on year decline.
General Macro and Industry Comments:
- CPI increased in line with Standard Bank’s expectations, coming at 4.6% y/y in May 2015 from 4.5% y/y in April. On average, prices increased by 0.3% between April 2015 and May 2015.
- The increase, as expected, came on the back of an increase in petrol price inflation. The petrol price deflated at a slower in pace in May (-10.0% y/y) than in April (-11.0% y/y), adding 5 bps more to May’s headline inflation rate than in April.
- The transport index increased by 0.3% between April 2015 and May 2015. The annual rate increased to -0.7% in May 2015 from -1.1% in April 2015.
- CPI forecast has been adjusted which assumes that tariffs for 2015/16 will be implemented in September 2015. NERSA’s decision with respect to the tariff increase will be key to the SARB’s next MPC decision, which according to Standard Bank the probability of a hike in Q3:15 have risen to over 50%.
- The Department of Energy announced that the price of petrol for July 2015 will increase by 44 cents for all grades effective 1 July 2015.
- According to the DOE the main reason contributing to the price adjustments is the weakening of the rand against US dollar compared to the previous period.
[Comments on NAAMSA New Vehicle Sales Report – June 2015 – Nicholas Nkosi – Head of Standard Bank Vehicle and Asset Finance – Retail Banking]